Monday, December 22, 2025

The Return of Supercarrier and Gunboat Diplomacy: Trump's High-Stakes Gamble in Venezuela

 


In the waning days of 2025, the pristine Caribbean waters off Venezuela's coast have become the stage for one of the most audacious displays of American Superpower projection in the Western Hemisphere since the Cold War. President Donald Trump, in his second term, has deployed what he boasts is "the largest Naval Armada ever assembled in the History of South America"—centered around the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, flanked by destroyers, submarines, and thousands of troops.
Da New Seize, of Da High Seas World Reportvia DaniyelCitgo Refinery Corpus Christi TexasDecember 22, 2025
Da Monroe Doctrine 2.0 U.S. Geopolitical Interests in Latin America
 Officially, this naval blockade targets newly sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers in an attempt to starve the regime of Nicolás Maduro of revenue. Unofficially, sources in Washington and Caracas whisper of deeper motives as the era of the U.S. Petrodollar and thus U.S. Financial Hegemony of endless printing of paper dollars, and digitizing the debt is now on it's deathbed. Thus in the Trump Administration's "Hail Mary" desperate attempt to gain control over the world's largest proven oil reserves, countering Chinese and Russian encroachment into the Western Hemisphere, and reclaiming assets nationalized by Venezuela's leaders decades ago.
 Just which of the U.S.A.'s closest allies has a vested stake in overthrowing Maduro's regime? Which is the one nation that even the United States simply can not criticize; especially when it's President has been bought and paid for by Miriam Adelson?
This escalation against Maduro's regime did not emerge in a vacuum. It builds on years of sanctions, disputed elections, and haughty accusations of narco-terrorism. Yet the speed and scale of Trump's actions—designating the Venezuelan government itself as a "Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and enforcing a "total and complete naval blockade"—have stunned observers. Critics in Congress decry it as a blatant violation of international maritime law, and an  unauthorized act of war; Maduro denounces it as neo-imperialism. As tensions are starting to boil, with Venezuelan naval escorts shadowing U.S. vessels, and even Beijing's contemplation of providing China's own emerging naval sea power to the Caribbean. With a clear and present danger of risks of miscalculation looming, the question remains: Is this a well thought out calculated pressure campaign to force regime change, or the prelude to a broader regional or even worldwide conflagration?

Venezuela's Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize
Roots of the Crisis: From Chávez to MaduroTo understand the current standoff, one must trace back to Hugo Chávez, the charismatic populist who ruled Venezuela from 1999 until his death in 2013. Chávez's "Bolivarian Revolution" promised to redistribute the nation's immense oil wealth to the poor, but it also entailed aggressive nationalizations. The oil sector had been fully state-controlled since 1976, when Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) was created. However, in the 2000s, foreign companies—including American giants like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips—operated through joint ventures or service contracts in the lucrative Orinoco Belt, home to vast deposits of heavy crude. 
The Oil Refineries of the Texas, and Louisiana Gulf Coasts have long been optimized to reduce the high Sulphur content of Venezuelan "Sour Crude" Oil that is essential for refining diesel fuel for the transportation of food and other goods for the North American market. 

A prominent Caracas Mural features the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez with the symbolic date: Jan. 23, 1958 when civilians joined in with the military to overthrow the dictatorship of Marcos, Perez, Jimenez in Caracas.  


In 2007, Chávez demanded that these North American mega oil corporations cede majority control to PDVSA, effectively forcing many out of Venezuela. Arbitrations followed, with some firms winning billions in compensation through international tribunals. The Trump Administration is now reviving  these grievances, repeatedly demanding the return of "oil, land, and other assets" allegedly "stolen" from U.S. companies. While Venezuela asserts that it maintains sovereign rights over its natural resources under international law, the rhetoric that Venezuela has stolen U.S. corporate properties is now reaching a groundswell in America's boardrooms, where oil executives reportedly have been consulted on optimizing post-Maduro opportunities.

Nicolas Maduro shows off a Tai Chi like Fist and Open Palm stance next to his wife Cilia Flores after his oath of office ceremony for his third term in Caracas on Jan, 10, 2025


Venezuela's Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez observes a soldier holding an Igla-S Surface to Air Missile during a training exercise in Caracas Nov. 11, 2025


Maduro, Chávez's handpicked successor, has clung to power amidst economic collapse, mass emigration out of Venezuela, and increasing international isolation. The 2024 presidential election, widely condemned as fraudulent by the Washington Swamp Commanders, and much of the international community, has solidified opposition claims that Maduro stole the vote from Edmundo González. Adding to longstanding U.S. indictments portraying Maduro as a "narco-terrorist" heading the "Cartel de los Soles"—a network of officials allegedly tied to drug trafficking—and the stage was set for escalation.
 In November 2025, the State Department formally designated the Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Trump went further in December, rhetorically labeling the entire "Venezuelan Regime" an FTO, citing theft of assets, terrorism, smuggling, and trafficking. This designation, though not following standard bureaucratic processes for state entities, provides the Trump Administration with hypothetical legal cover for increasingly aggressive measures, including tanker seizures and strikes on suspected high speed "cigar boat" drug vessels that have reportedly killed over 100 people. 
  Considering Obama's tenure as the former Commander in Chief, Is it beyond consideration in the newly renamed U.S. Department of War, that with Maduro now being designated as the head of a "foreign terrorist organization" that a targeted ass@$$ination via a missile or drone strike might "oops!" eliminate Venezuela's pesky "wanna bee" Dictator for Life? 
Venezuela's Treasure Trove: Oil and Beyond
At the heart of this drama lies Venezuela's extraordinary resource wealth. The country sits atop approximately 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves—the largest on Earth—concentrated in the Orinoco Belt's heavy crude. Even with production crippled to around 900,000 barrels per day by sanctions, mismanagement, and infrastructure decay, this represents a tantalizing prize. Natural gas reserves rank among the hemisphere's largest, while the nation boasts Latin America's biggest gold deposits, plus iron ore, bauxite, diamonds, and strategic minerals like coltan, lithium, and titanium in the Orinoco Mining Arc.
These rare earths and critical materials, though not globally dominant in quantity, hold strategic value for technology supply chains and the green energy transition. For a U.S. administration pushing "America First" energy dominance, gaining favorable access to these rare earth minerals in a post-Maduro era could reshape global markets. Yet Washington's official justifications remain focused on security: choking oil revenues allegedly funding illegal drug manufacturing and distribution, and terrorism, not outright resource grabs.
Complicating matters are depressed global oil prices. As of December 22, 2025, Brent crude hovers at $61–62 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $56–57. Over the prior 90 days, prices have plunged 15–20% from September highs of $70–75, driven by oversupply, weak demand, and OPEC+ production hikes led by Saudi Arabia. Riyadh and allies have flooded the market—adding hundreds of thousands of barrels daily—to reclaim share from U.S. shale, discipline cheaters like Iraq, and position for long-term dominance amid the energy transition.
This global glut is currently pressuring U.S. petroleum producers, whose shale fracking breakeven costs often range between $50–70 per barrel. By restricting Venezuela's modest exports (about 1% of global supply), the blockade could subtly tighten markets and bolster domestic profitability—a secondary motive, analysts suggest, aligned with Trump's energy policies, though stated primary drivers are sanctions enforcement and regime change.The Department of War's Military Buildup: AMERICOM and South American History's Largest Naval ArmadaTrump's naval deployment marks the most significant U.S. military presence in South America since the 1989 invasion of Panama. The armada includes the USS Gerald R. Ford nuclear powered supercarrier strike group, destroyers, submarines, and support vessels, backed by thousands of troops. Interdictions have targeted not just sanctioned tankers but occasionally others, heightening increasing international maritime sea-power clashes as Venezuelan forces provide escorts for outgoing oil supertankers destined for China, and other markets. This operation dovetails with broader hemispheric restructuring. On December 5, 2025, the U.S. Army activated the Western Hemisphere Command (USAWHC)—dubbed "AMERICOM" in some circles—a new four-star theater command headquartered at Fort Liberty, North Carolina. Unifying prior Army entities, it oversees operations from Arctic Canada to the tip of South America's Tierra del Fuego, emphasizing homeland defense, crisis response, countering foreign influence (notably China and Russia), and border security. Aligned with Trump's 2025 National Security Strategy, it enhances unified readiness without overtly "militarizing" the region, though critics see it as assertive dominance.
The Pentagon under Trump's second term has reversed course yet again as the U.S. Department of Defense, has once again renamed itself to the World War II era Department of War—officially remains committed to world peace through strength, deterrence, alliances, humanitarian aid, and international diplomacy support. Yet skeptics point to Trump's current South American interventions as prioritizing ongoing U.S. geopolitical strategic interests over genuine peace and stability.Risks of Escalation: Is War on the Horizon?Experts assess the odds of full-scale regional war as low to moderate—perhaps 20–30% short-term. Yet current direct U.S.-Venezuela skirmishes, or heaven forbid U.S.-China confrontations at sea pose immeasurably higher risks. While Venezuela's military is weakened from it's pinnacle during the Hugo Chavez era: due to aging equipment, poor maintenance, and low operational readiness. A full-scale land invasion could trigger a "Vietnam-style" guerrilla warfare, with renewed refugee floods into Colombia and Brazil, and spillover instability.
 Current U.S. Public opposition to a War with Venezuela runs high (~70% against military action), and congressional critics decry lack of authorization. Trump has refused to rule out airstrikes yet he pledges no prolonged wars. Latin American nations, through CELAC, overwhelmingly favor diplomacy over intervention. Escalation might instead yield internal collapse under economic strangulation. Maduro's Open Secret Allies in the Shadows: China, Russia, Iran and OthersMaduro is not isolated. China, which is owed over $60 billion in loans-for-oil deals, remains Venezuela's top crude buyer and Belt and Road partner. Beijing is keen on protecting it's geopolitical assets, as they have poured funds into Venezuela's energy, infrastructure, mining, power grids, ports, agriculture, and economic zones—securing oil supplies for it's own manufacturing and strategic needs while expanding it's influence over South and Central America. Though new lending has slowed amid defaults, China provides a vital lifeline, with commercial focus currently precluding direct military involvement.
Russia, currently strained with its ongoing war with Ukraine, has previously supplied Venezuela with significant military arms including 4.5 Generation Su-30MK2 fighter jets with Kh-31 anti-ship missiles, S-300VM air defenses, Buk systems, MANPADS) and sanction-evasion aid. Support remains mostly rhetorical; currently no significant Russian troop deployments to South America are expected.
Iran can offer Venezuela with drone and its own considerable oil ties if U.S. Military air-strikes knock out Venezuela's oil production and refinery infrastructure in an ongoing war.  Cuba can provide Venezuela intelligence and ideology decrying Washington's acts of "Piracy;" Nicaragua and Bolivia offer verbal backing as regional allies to Maduro's regime, yet little more substantial. Maduro seeks more missiles and radars from his allies, yet these alliances appear "hollow"—unlikely to confront U.S. forces directly.
Venezuela's arsenal relies heavily on Russian systems: around 20 Su-30 jets, aging German submarines (likely inoperable), coastal defenses. Maintenance woes limit operational effectiveness; asymmetric tactics—militia, escorts—seem probable over open battle. Deterring the U.S. armada appears improbable given American naval superiority.
Considering London's and Brussel's EU/NATO preoccupation in it's quest for regime change in Moscow, just who might offer the Trump Administration with intelligence as well as targeted ass@$$ination expertise in eliminating Maduro from power in Venezuela?  
Currently Maria Corina Machado is the Venezuelan opposition leader who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded it to her on October 10, 2025, for her "tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy." The committee highlighted her role in uniting the opposition, resisting authoritarianism, and advocating non-violent democratic change amid repression under Nicolás Maduro's regime.
The prize decision came independently by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, based on her long-term efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela, including unifying opposition forces and mobilizing against electoral fraud in recent years. It was controversial, with some critics arguing it was politicized, but the official motivation focused on her civilian courage and promotion of peace through democratic means.
While Trump publicly expressed interest in being awarded the 2025 Nobel prize and claimed credit for resolving multiple global conflicts. While Trump's allies criticized the decision as "politics over peace," Machado herself gave credit for part of her award to Trump for his "decisive support" against the Maduro regime and even suggested he deserved a future Nobel.

Hugo Chávez, severed diplomatic ties with Israel back on January 14, 2009, primarily in protest against Israel's military operation in Gaza known as Operation Cast Lead (December 27, 2008–January 18, 2009). Chávez and his government strongly condemned the operation as a "holocaust," "genocide," "state terrorism," and "inhumane persecution" against the Palestinian people, accusing Israel of deliberately targeting civilians and causing disproportionate casualties. 

While Maduro has been outspoken in his ongoing criticism of Israel, especially for the Israeli Defense Forces utter devastation of the Gaza Strip, killing 83% civilians by Israel's own admissions post October 7th 2023; Machado is openly pro-Israel. She has expressed strong support for Israel, pledged to restore and strengthen diplomatic ties, and even promised to move Venezuela's embassy to Jerusalem if she gets in power.

 In October 2025, she spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, thanking him for his personal congratulations on her winning the Nobel prize and for Machado's voicing her support for Netanyahu's policies, including against shared threats like Iran. Her Vente Venezuela party has historical cooperation agreements with Israel's Likud party, and she has described Israel as an ally in the fight for freedom. This stance has drawn criticism from her political opponents who accuse her of aligning with controversial Israeli policies.

    On 11/13/2025 Israel's Hayom English Online Edition published an extensive article titled "Nobel Prize Laureate 'If they find me they'll disappear me' about Venezuela's Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado" raises critical geopolitical questions that warrant a thorough examination. The answers lie in understanding the strategic interests of Israel, the United States, and the geopolitical dynamics of Venezuela.

    Israel's primary interests in Venezuela are multifaceted and stem from both economic and geopolitical considerations.Economic interests: Venezuela possesses significant oil reserves, and Israel, being energy-import dependent, seeks to secure stable and affordable energy supplies. Moreover, Venezuela's vast mineral resources, including gold, diamonds, and coltan (a key component in electronic devices), are attractive to Israeli industries.

      • Israel's Geopolitical interests in South America: Israel seeks to counterbalance Iran's influence in the region. Venezuela, under Maduro, has aligned itself with Iran and Russia, posing a threat to Israel's strategic interests. By supporting the opposition and potentially installing a pro-Western government, Israel can disrupt this axis of power.

    2. Trump Administration's involvement: The Trump administration's interest in Venezuela is rooted in several factors:

      • Economic considerations: Venezuela's economic collapse has led to a mass exodus of Venezuelans, many of whom have entered the United States. The Trump administration sought to address this humanitarian crisis and stabilize the region.

      • Geopolitical interests: Like Israel, the Trump administration sought to counterbalance Iran's influence in the region. Additionally, the Trump administration aimed to roll back what it perceived as the Obama administration's appeasement of Venezuela's socialist regime.

    3. Senator Lindsay Graham's meeting with Netanyahu:

    4. On Sunday December 21, 2025 Senator Graham, a prominent Republican and ally of Trump, met with Netanyahu to discuss regional security issues, including Iran and Syria. Given Graham's hawkish stance on Venezuela, it is entirely plausible that the situation in Venezuela was also discussed; as later that day Graham was asked about his support for the Trump Administations military actions against Maduro's regime during a Live Interview from Tel Aviv with Kristen Welker on NBC's Meet the Press.

A New Era of Imperial Assertion?As the blockade grinds on amid low oil prices and OPEC flooding global oil markets, Trump's Venezuela gambit tests hemispheric boundaries. Framed as counter-narcotics and asset recovery, it masks deeper plays: resource access, adversary containment, domestic energy bolstering. Yet with hollow alliances for Maduro and regional opposition to war, outcomes may hinge on internal Venezuelan political fractures rather than Trump's gaining a classic "Victory at Sea" triumph.
History warns of unintended consequences—gunboat diplomacy rarely ends neatly. In this powder keg off South America's coast, the world is watching and waiting to see whether Trump's overt military pressure yields change or ignites chaos. For now, Trump's Naval armada sails on, a stark reminder that in geopolitics, power still speaks loudest from the barrel of a gun—or the deck of a supercarrier. 
at

No comments:

Post a Comment