Mexico's most recent round of civil unrest's genesis as a grassroots uprising against perceived cartel protectionism, corruption, and policy failures of President Claudia Sheinbaum which she largely inherited from her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) broke out on November 15, 2025, with nationwide protests in over 50 cities, triggered by the assassination of Uruapan Mayor Carlos Manzo, breakdown to these key points of protests:
And yet in spite of these pockets of rage against President Sheinbaum by primarily youthful protestors; across all age brackets in Mexico her approval ratings remain quite high in the 60 to 70% range in polls largely due to her administration's well published record drug seizures, as evidence to older voters that she sincerely desires to improve the quality of life; even if some of her other policies, such as her track record of being a climate alarmist who wishes to severely curtail Mexico's Petroleum Industry; may well be seen as not being in her countries best short to mid range economic interests. Mexico's automotive manufacturing industry is swiftly being transferred from gasoline and diesel to electric vehicles which are presently dominated by China for those who simply can not afford a Tesla.
Claudia Sheinbaum's Political Affiliation with AMLOClaudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's first female and Jewish president (inaugurated October 2024), is a close ideological ally and protégé of her mentor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), the former president (2018-2024) and founder of the leftist Morena party. Sheinbaum joined Morena in 2014 after serving as AMLO's environment secretary during his 2000-2006 tenure as Mexico City mayor. Her 2024 landslide victory (59% of the vote) was built on AMLO's "Fourth Transformation" agenda, emphasizing anti-corruption, social welfare, and nationalism.
Sheinbaum has preserved key elements like military empowerment in security, judicial reforms (e.g., electing judges), and welfare expansions, but with a technocratic twist—drawing from her educational background with a PhD in physics and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stewardship. Sheinbaum's Critics, including opposition parties, call her "AMLO's puppet" for not diluting his anti-pluralistic rhetoric, although she differs from AMLO on issues like COVID masking and clean energy. This continuity has solidified Morena's dominance but fueled accusations of power concentration.
Mexico's Major Cartels and Funding SourcesNo contemporary geopolitical analysis of Mexico is complete without a candid understanding of the infamous Mexican "Drug Cartels" and yet their various factions have seen the wisdom of diversifying their Neo-Gangster sources of ill-gotten income. Mexico's cartels are transnational criminal organizations dominating drug trafficking, extortion, and resource theft. The U.S. DEA identifies two primary threats: the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS) and CJNG, with over 45,000 members operating in 100+ countries. Other major groups include:
Funding primarily comes from U.S. drug demand (fentanyl crisis), but diversification into huachicol (fuel theft, $3B+ annual losses to Mexico), migrant smuggling ($13B in 2023), and legal sector extortion has made them resilient. Cartels control territories via corruption and violence, with 460,000+ homicides since 2006.Mexico's Cartels' Role in Political Assassinations
Mexico's cartels are directly responsible for the scourge of surging political violence, with 1,709 attacks on officials from 2018-2024, and 37 candidate murders in the 2024 elections—the deadliest cycle on record. Motivations include: (1) eliminating anti-cartel politicians; (2) punishing those favoring rivals; (3) sowing chaos to control turf. From 2000-2021, organized crime drove 88% of assassinations, targeting mayors (e.g., Uruapan's Carlos Manzo in November 2025) and candidates in cartel hotspots like Guerrero (6 killed in 2024).
Studies show cartels dirty money is able to buy cooperative, compliant, and controllable candidates or install proxies, using violence to capture local governments for rent-seeking (e.g., infrastructure funds). This erodes genuine democracy, forcing school age dropouts and remote voting in elections opening the doors to massive voter fraud, due to public safety measures in violent areas like Michoacán..Trump's Border Closure Effects on Cartels and Mexico's EconomyU.S. President Trump's 2025 protective border measures—closures, mass deportations (5,000+ in early term), and cartel terrorist designations—have disrupted operations but inflicted real economic pain, not just to the cartels, yet to law abiding Mexican nationals, as fewer money transfers are now taking place between Mexican Ex-Patriots living in the United States are being sent back to their extended families members remaining in Mexico.
For cartels, this means: Stricter U.S. Border Patrols and now Trump's Tariffs are cutting smuggling revenues (e.g., higher migrant fees, marijuana, cocaine, heroin and fentanyl routes via drones, vehicle, and horseback patrols in the "No Country For Old Men" scarcely populated regions of U.S. Southern Border States. This is leading to more arrests (49 in O'Biden's 2023 ops) and infighting (e.g., Sinaloa's 2023 Culiacanazo). Billion-dollar ops halted, but violence escalated as cartels adapted to terroristic measures such as IEDs on backcountry roads, and more traversed highways.
For Mexico's economy: 75% of it's exports ($500B+) are going to the U.S.; closures could slash GDP by 0.62% ($130B/year), hitting auto parts (37% imported) and produce ($1.6B daily trade). Money Remittances ($60B) and nearshoring like automotive exports across Central and North America suffer from more extensive deportations and tariffs (25% threatened), stranding migrants and raising costs. Sheinbaum's cooperation sending high visibility troop deployments is helping to mitigate some fallout but highlights the need for governmental dependency.AMLO's and Sheinbaum's "Hugs, Not Bullets" Policies' Impact on Quality of LifeAMLO's "abrazos, no balazos" (hugs, not bullets) prioritized social programs (e.g., youth welfare to deter cartel recruitment) over confrontations, militarizing the National Guard (60,000 strong) but avoiding kingpin raids. Sheinbaum continued this initially but shifted post-2024 elections amid U.S. pressure, boosting arrests (tens of thousands), lab dismantlings (1,150 by June 2025), and fentanyl seizures (178 tonnes). Impacts on quality of life:
- Cartel Influence and Political Violence: Mexico's Gen Z Protestors contend that Sheinbaum's administration has failed to curb cartel power, allowing groups like the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartels (CJNG) to assassinate officials and extort industries, fueling a "narco-state."
- Policy Critiques: Protestors point out that the "hugs, not bullets" approach as enabling violence, links Sheinbaum's leftist climate policies to economic stagnation in oil and manufacturing, and accuse her of prioritizing AMLO's agenda over citizen safety.
- Border and Economic Ties: Mexico's U.S. border policies under Trump to cartel disruptions but argues Mexico's economy suffers from Sheinbaum's reluctance to confront cartels aggressively.
- Cultural and Identity Backlash: Some of the multitude of protestors spray-painted antisemitic graffiti like "Puta Judía" (Jewish whore) during protests, suggesting it reveals underlying prejudices against Sheinbaum's Jewish heritage in a predominantly Catholic nation.
- Call to Action: Mexico's Gen Z Social Media savvy mobile phone users organized these nationwide protests online, and see this as a model for initiating global anti-corruption movements, predicting escalation across other nations if Sheinbaum doesn't resort toward more aggressive military crackdowns.
Claudia Sheinbaum's Political Affiliation with AMLOClaudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's first female and Jewish president (inaugurated October 2024), is a close ideological ally and protégé of her mentor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), the former president (2018-2024) and founder of the leftist Morena party. Sheinbaum joined Morena in 2014 after serving as AMLO's environment secretary during his 2000-2006 tenure as Mexico City mayor. Her 2024 landslide victory (59% of the vote) was built on AMLO's "Fourth Transformation" agenda, emphasizing anti-corruption, social welfare, and nationalism.
Sheinbaum has preserved key elements like military empowerment in security, judicial reforms (e.g., electing judges), and welfare expansions, but with a technocratic twist—drawing from her educational background with a PhD in physics and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stewardship. Sheinbaum's Critics, including opposition parties, call her "AMLO's puppet" for not diluting his anti-pluralistic rhetoric, although she differs from AMLO on issues like COVID masking and clean energy. This continuity has solidified Morena's dominance but fueled accusations of power concentration.
Mexico's Major Cartels and Funding SourcesNo contemporary geopolitical analysis of Mexico is complete without a candid understanding of the infamous Mexican "Drug Cartels" and yet their various factions have seen the wisdom of diversifying their Neo-Gangster sources of ill-gotten income. Mexico's cartels are transnational criminal organizations dominating drug trafficking, extortion, and resource theft. The U.S. DEA identifies two primary threats: the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS) and CJNG, with over 45,000 members operating in 100+ countries. Other major groups include:
Cartel | Key Strongholds | Primary Activities | Estimated Funding |
|---|---|---|---|
Sinaloa Cartel (CDS) | Sinaloa, northwest Mexico; U.S. hubs like Chicago, LA | Fentanyl, heroin, meth, cocaine production/trafficking; smuggling routes | $3-39B annually from U.S. drug sales; diversified into avocados, mining extortion |
Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) | Jalisco, Michoacán; expanding nationwide | Fentanyl precursors from China; fuel theft (huachicol), migrant smuggling | Tens of millions from fuel theft (billions lost to Mexico gov't); $1B+ from drugs |
Gulf Cartel (CDG) | Tamaulipas, eastern Mexico | Cocaine/heroin transit; human trafficking | Drug tolls, extortion; weakened but allied with Zetas remnants |
Los Zetas / Cartel del Noreste (CDN) | Northeast border states | Extortion, kidnapping; violent enforcement | Protection rackets, oil theft |
La Nueva Familia Michoacána (LNFM) & Cárteles Unidos | Michoacán, Guerrero | Avocado/lime extortion; meth labs | $500M+ from agriculture extortion; drug production |
Mexico's cartels are directly responsible for the scourge of surging political violence, with 1,709 attacks on officials from 2018-2024, and 37 candidate murders in the 2024 elections—the deadliest cycle on record. Motivations include: (1) eliminating anti-cartel politicians; (2) punishing those favoring rivals; (3) sowing chaos to control turf. From 2000-2021, organized crime drove 88% of assassinations, targeting mayors (e.g., Uruapan's Carlos Manzo in November 2025) and candidates in cartel hotspots like Guerrero (6 killed in 2024).
Studies show cartels dirty money is able to buy cooperative, compliant, and controllable candidates or install proxies, using violence to capture local governments for rent-seeking (e.g., infrastructure funds). This erodes genuine democracy, forcing school age dropouts and remote voting in elections opening the doors to massive voter fraud, due to public safety measures in violent areas like Michoacán..Trump's Border Closure Effects on Cartels and Mexico's EconomyU.S. President Trump's 2025 protective border measures—closures, mass deportations (5,000+ in early term), and cartel terrorist designations—have disrupted operations but inflicted real economic pain, not just to the cartels, yet to law abiding Mexican nationals, as fewer money transfers are now taking place between Mexican Ex-Patriots living in the United States are being sent back to their extended families members remaining in Mexico.
For cartels, this means: Stricter U.S. Border Patrols and now Trump's Tariffs are cutting smuggling revenues (e.g., higher migrant fees, marijuana, cocaine, heroin and fentanyl routes via drones, vehicle, and horseback patrols in the "No Country For Old Men" scarcely populated regions of U.S. Southern Border States. This is leading to more arrests (49 in O'Biden's 2023 ops) and infighting (e.g., Sinaloa's 2023 Culiacanazo). Billion-dollar ops halted, but violence escalated as cartels adapted to terroristic measures such as IEDs on backcountry roads, and more traversed highways.
For Mexico's economy: 75% of it's exports ($500B+) are going to the U.S.; closures could slash GDP by 0.62% ($130B/year), hitting auto parts (37% imported) and produce ($1.6B daily trade). Money Remittances ($60B) and nearshoring like automotive exports across Central and North America suffer from more extensive deportations and tariffs (25% threatened), stranding migrants and raising costs. Sheinbaum's cooperation sending high visibility troop deployments is helping to mitigate some fallout but highlights the need for governmental dependency.AMLO's and Sheinbaum's "Hugs, Not Bullets" Policies' Impact on Quality of LifeAMLO's "abrazos, no balazos" (hugs, not bullets) prioritized social programs (e.g., youth welfare to deter cartel recruitment) over confrontations, militarizing the National Guard (60,000 strong) but avoiding kingpin raids. Sheinbaum continued this initially but shifted post-2024 elections amid U.S. pressure, boosting arrests (tens of thousands), lab dismantlings (1,150 by June 2025), and fentanyl seizures (178 tonnes). Impacts on quality of life:
- Positive: Welfare expansions ($45B in 2025) reduced poverty (from 42% to 36% under AMLO), aiding 25M+ with health/education access; youth programs cut recruitment in some areas.
- Negative: Homicides hit records (200,000 under AMLO; 51,000 in Sheinbaum's first year), disappearances rose, and cartels expanded (e.g., migrant extortion). Polls show security as top concern (60% dissatisfaction), with violence displacing families and stifling growth. Shift to intelligence-led ops offers hope, but experts warn militarization risks abuses without judicial reforms.
- Petroleum Industry: Her "energy sovereignty" sustains Pemex (20% gov't revenue; 2M barrels/day target), rejecting full privatization but pledging robust demand). Critics say it locks in emissions; supporters note job protection (3.5% growth potential).
13.6B renewables by 2030 (solar/wind boost). [](grok_render_citation_card_json={"cardIds":["459de8","748c40"]}) This hybrid delays decarbonization (Mexico's 11th-largest oil producer), canceling some AMLO renewables but increasing gas imports ( - Manufacturing/Automotive: Policies promote nearshoring (e.g., southern industrial parks), but USMCA 2026 review pressures EV transitions (37% auto parts from Mexico). Austerity limits incentives, slowing FDI amid tariffs; her green focus could add 1.6% GDP via clean tech, but fossil reliance risks supply chain disruptions.
- Mayor Carlos Manzo's Assassination: The November 4, 2025, killing of Uruapan's anti-cartel mayor (shot at a Day of the Dead event) exposed security failures, sparking fury over 51 corruption cases and cartel turf wars in Michoacán.
- Persistent Violence and Corruption: Record homicides (51,000 in first year), disappearances, and scandals (e.g., medicine shortages) fuel perceptions of a "narco-state."
- Economic Stagnation: Slowing growth, austerity cuts (e.g., infrastructure), and Trump tariffs exacerbate youth unemployment and inequality.
- Youth Frustrations: Gen Z (despite 66% supporting Sheinbaum) protests lack of opportunities, linking to global movements; amplified by bots and right-wing funding.
- Opposition Manipulation: Sheinbaum alleges foreign/right-wing orchestration (e.g., MAGA ties), but core grievances are domestic.
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